Windermere Living From peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. Meanwhile, new home construction. 30-year mortgage rate: 5.59000%. Hes employed as a professional actor and director of marketing and advertising at Hale Center Theater Orem, as well as director of communications at the Salt Lake Acting Company. The Utah housing market is poised for economic growth, continually making it a desirable place to live, bringing with it a demand for homes, straining supply, and causing prices to remain and increase in value. Yun has said the margin of price declines will likely depend on the region. Homes are under construction in South Jordan on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. The question is, how far will that correction run and what will it mean for home prices in 2023? Along with his love of family, he has a very strong competitive spirit, is passionate about personal development, and truly cares for others. Agents receive this question at least 10 to 15 times per week. But by the end of the year, well stabilize and well be flat, Wood said. Additional links: Historical Utah Data The average rate for 2022, based on the forecasts of seven organization . The fi read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! How much do homes in Saint George, UT cost? But Wood is more bullish than Eskic. We also observe a lengthening of the time spent on the market and a decrease in both new listings and sales, which points towards a general slowing down of the Utah housing market. Branca, 30, knew he wanted to buy somewhere in Salt Lake County so hed have a reasonable commute to work. Housing prices have skyrocketed so much, now more than half of Utah's households are unable to afford the state's median priced home, which for single-family homes was $460,000 in 2021. In January 2023, 17.5% of homes in Utah sold below list price, down 27.8 points year. We hope that by publishing this Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition, we have shed some light and provided insight into some of the questions and concerns prospective investors and buyers may have. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop. 2020 further increased that number to almost 73% as median home sales prices reached $380,000. Our Utah real estate market data is updated quarterly to aid in your real estate forecasts. The jarring pace of Utah's housing market and its impact on Utahns "is why we think these investments are so important," Cox said. However, because of the stiff competition, Utahns who are looking to buy property should prepare themselves not just financially and physically but also mentally. Their goal is mainly to make a profit from investing in real estate but each of them has different approaches and strategies to achieve their goals. It was the year that put homeownership far out of reach. Already have a FastExpert account? Roughly two-thirds of the population live in the Wasatch Front in the north-central part of the state, which includes the capital city, Salt Lake City. Historically speaking, real estate only becomes more expensive over time. Families flourish in Utah. Connect with an Agent Hed hoped for a modest single family home, a starter home to share with his partner, to at least get their foot in the door of home ownership and out of the one bedroom, one bathroom apartment theyre currently renting in Salt Lake City. Strong job growth cities like Boise and Salt Lake City are harder to forecast, he said, as affordability issues keep first-time buyers from getting into the market. Homes in Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022. Realtor.com has predicted that the Salt Lake City region will be the top housing market in the country for the year with an anticipated price and sales growth of 8.5% and 15.2% respectively. Dont wait. Salt Lake City is the capital and most populous city of Utah, with a population of 200,133, Salt Lake City housing market is somewhat competitive, with listed properties receiving three offers per listing and 24.5% of them selling above the asking price. They didnt go down.. It boasts some of the best snow on planet earth! Eskic has a more bearish outlook. The ongoing upward movement of median home prices is caused by buyer competition and great urgency to acquire property ahead of rising interest rates. 2022 housing market forecast Utah hosted the 2002 Winter games, and Utah is looking to once again host these games once again. Like Salt Lake City, the West Valley City housing market is competitive, with listed properties receiving four offers on average and selling after 41 days on the market. After the next seven months, the median price fell by 14% to $485,829, erasing month-over-month percent increases until "finally turning negative 2.1% in December," Wood wrote in his report. How the pandemic housing frenzy which drove housing prices up to unimaginable levels in 2021 and into early 2022, especially in Western states like Idaho and Utah came to a grinding halt mid year, and the market crashed down to reality. 27.7% of homes sold above the asking price. A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive. Woods research colleague at the Kem C. Gardner Institute , Dejan Eskic, is more bearish, predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. As a result, average days on market have increased, and sellers are becoming more open to negotiation. This data does not reflect actual moves. Sales fell across the board compared to both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022. Realtor.com recently named the Salt Lake City region as the expected No. At the same time, the number of homes sold fell 34.7% and the number of homes for sale rose 81.9%. Get your free online home valuation in only 2 minutes! Updated January 2023: By searching, you agree to the Terms of Use, andPrivacy Policy. Is the Utah housing market going to crash in 2023? Nationally, a growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, some expecting slight, single-digit drops, while others expect prices to fall by double digits, perhaps even over 20%. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list. In addition, the number of homes has increased along with significant population growth. So many factors come into play. Comparatively speaking, I make more money than my parents combined income at my age and still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality than what they were able to purchase at that same age, Branca said. Months supply of inventory: 3 up from 1 in September 2021. Do not sell or share my personal information. (2023), Cost of Living in Hawaii: What You Need to Know (2023), How to Find the Best Mortgage Rates (2023), Outdoor activity opportunities are unlimited. On average, the number of homes sold was down 34.7% year over year and there were 1,769 homes sold in January this year, down 2,712 homes sold in January last year. Utah may be the 13th-largest state in the country by area, but it is also the 11th-least densely populated. Will it pop or deflate?, disagree over how much home prices will decline, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. A bubble is highly unlikely at this point in time because a bubble is defined as a prolonged period of actual price decline, not moderation or deceleration. READ REDFIN'S, Do not sell or share my personal information. This would place . Love hiking, biking, or camping? What is the housing market like right now? There were only 31.8% of homes that had price drops, up from 10.0% of homes in January last year. However, because of the growing number of migrants in the state, Utah is now faced with what experts say is a severe imbalance in its housing market. The latest housing data shows the median priced home in Utah's most populated county increased to $550,000 in the third quarter of 2021. All areas saw average market time rise compared to the third quarter of 2022 as well as the fourth quarter of 2021. They climbed up so high so fast. I am not concerned by this and expect the market to moderate as it comes to terms with higher financing costs. Therefore, Wood is predicting a couple of quarters in 2023, with home prices likely the most vulnerable in the first and second quarter of the year. The median price of a home in the United States is currently $518,200. If rates had risen to around 4.5%, the train would still go. Yeah, thats a valid point, Wood replied, drawing laughs from the crowd. According to data collected in September 2022, the latest available at the time of writing, the median sale price for a house in Utah stood at $533,500, representing a 5.6% increase compared to September 2021. However, they expect the market to enter a correction that will persist into 2023 thanks to the Federal Reserves aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation. Home sales: 3,219 - 26.7% less than a year ago. In its December 2022 monthly report, Realtor.com said its monthly housing data showed a housing market thats continuing to cool, with the number of homes for sale up by 54.7% compared to the same time last year. Additionally, both Wood and Eskic predict Utahs estimated 31,000-unit housing shortage will continue to keep home prices high, even if the state sees some price drops, so they expect Utahs housing affordability crisis to remain a persistent issue that is pricing out more than 75% of Utahns from affording the states median-priced home. Once the market rebounds, buyers can be in an even more powerful position when the market shifts back to a more lopsided sellers market. Buying read more, FastExpert, Inc is a California Licensed Broker. Utah continues to be a light upon a hill to others throughout the States and even worldwide. But when mortgage rates ticked up, he said it quickly became apparent that he wasnt going to be able to buy a home with, say, a $1,600 monthly mortgage payment. While that remains to be seen, whats clear is that demographic tailwinds will keep the demand for housing robust this decade. Here are their year-over-year predictions for the Salt Lake City housing market in 2022: Forecasted home sales change: +15.2%. In December 2022, Cache County home prices were up 2.1% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $444K. Heres why, The Wests sharp housing market correction: Heres how fast home prices have fallen in 4 months, Home sales are crashing down to reality in the West, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. 2022's housing market follows Utah's hottest housing year ever . If you divided your housing price by your annual income, it was 2.6. If you are using a screen reader, or having trouble reading this website, please call Redfin Customer Support for help at 1-844-759-7732. #UPDATE firms predicting that U.S. home prices will continue to fall in 2023:@FannieMae@Zondahome@JBREC Zelman & Associates@KPMG@GoldmanSachs@MorganStanley@WellsFargo@MoodysAnalyticsTD Bank@CapEconomics@PantheonMacroAmherstING@RedfinYieldstreet. In 2022, Redfin itself went through two rounds of layoffs. After a peak of the housing market in May 2022, when the Utah median home price reached a record $577,500, Utah house prices have slowly been decreasing, although they remain higher than they were the year prior. With rates hitting record lows of 2%, things are about to change in 2022 as recent trends on 30-year fixed mortgages have already come very close to 3%. Site Map | FastExpert, inc. 2021. In June 2020, the median sales price across Utah averaged $363,600 and has now jumped to $580,000. Average income: 74197. While home prices have decreased about 3% month over month, home prices are up nearly 9% year over year in August. At the same time, the number of homes sold fell 34.7% and the number of homes for sale rose 81.9%. The Utah housing market has experienced consistent growth in real estate throughout the past five years, but it started to take off in mid-2020. It is equally impressive to see that the unemployment rate remained at a very low level even as the state added over 52,400 people to the workforce. The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market and. Check! Key Market Stats for the Utah Housing Market According to September 2022 data, some of the key market stats for the Utah housing market appear as follows: Median home price: $533,500 - a 5.6% Y.o.Y. Nationwide, an increasing number of firms have downgraded their forecasts and predict U.S. home prices will continue to fall in 2023, Fortune has reported. Please check your email to verify your account. Dont focus on the loss you may believe you are experiencing if you sell today. After the next seven months, the median price fell by 14% to $485,829, erasing month-over-month percent increases until finally turning negative 2.1% in December, Wood wrote in his report. And it looks like that trend is not going to end any time soon. Gone are the days of brutal competition. But its not the bubble we know, The Wests sharp housing market correction: Heres how fast home prices have fallen in 4 months, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. These factors positioned Utah in the top spot on the Bankrate Housing Heat Index. Hang in there. In addition, people are moving to Utah because of the family-friendly environment, high-ranking school systems, and endless outdoor activities available along with the National parks. As of November 2022, four consecutive 75 bps increases brought mortgage rates over 7%, reaching their highest level since April 2008 and standing over twice higher as the same time last year. While Utah is below the national average in many areas, home prices have managed to remain strong. Even with the recent slowdown, a correctly priced home will sell, and it will sell with record equity growth over the last 10-year average. We break down our data by county, but we cover major cities in this region including Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, and West Jordan. In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median price. This was marginally below the rate of the prior year but impressive all the same. Even before COVID swept across the world, the Utah housing market was already out of reach for 63% of renter households. This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. -0.63% home value decrease month over month. 36 days on the market. The rental market is not affordable and is experiencing high rental prices. Buyers were actually offering pizza, cookies, even Utah Jazz tickets to literally sweeten the deal, all kinds of crazy stuff that real estate agents had to make sure to handle correctly. , Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. According to Realtor.com data, the current median days listed in Utah is 52, the highest since the onset of the pandemic, but still a ways away from pre-pandemic figures. John Burns Real Estate Consulting now expects U.S. home prices to fall 20% to 22%. On average, homes in Cache County sell after 57 days on the market compared to 12 days last year. Several people claim that hedge funds, investors, and cash buyers are to blame for this lopsidedness. Heres why, 2021: The year of the shocking home price, Utah made a dent on its housing shortage in 2021 but is still 31,000 units short, Buying a house? Rates rose dramatically in 2022, but I believe that they have now peaked. According to September 2022 data, some of the key market stats for the Utah housing market appear as follows: As in many other places across the country, Utah home prices have increased faster than usual in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak. On average, the number of homes sold was down 34.7% year over year and there were 1,769 homes sold in January this year, down 2,712 homes sold in January last year. For September of 2022 Utah saw the median sale price remain flat compared to August and is still up almost 6% from 2021. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. Compass announced a third round of layoffs on Thursday, according to The Real Deal. Utah Housing Market Trends Q4 2022 According to the report by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner, the Utah real estate market has experienced a slowdown in the pace of job growth, with the state adding 43,300 jobs over the past 12 months at an annual rate of 2.6%. Like many other housing markets around the country, the Utah housing market has reached new heights during the pandemic as a result of a perfect storm of low inventory, high demand, and interest rates near historic lows. In addition, Utahs median listing price is 36% more than homes across the United States. Industry experts and analysts have recently released their different takes on various US housing markets. Wood said he was a little bit more optimistic, predicting minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. While Eskic said he agrees with Wood about Utahs strong job market, but were operating in a different environment because of the rates and prices.. Look at housing prices, they were sticky. shattering the 43-year-old record of 20.1% set in 1978," wrote James Wood in the 2022 Housing Forecast Executive Report. They also anticipate prices to grow 8.5% and sales to grow 15.2%. They also anticipate prices to grow 8.5% and sales to grow 15.2%. Focus on the unbelievable increase you have gained over the past 10, 5, or even 2 years! Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. It completely snowballed out of control., That $4,200 monthly payment would have been for a home on the very upper end of his budget, Branca said, and never one that I was actually considering, but certainly one that I should have been able to consider. South Carolina Housing Market 2023 Report, North Carolina Housing Market 2023 Report. Realtor.com isn't the only group offering a strong forecast for the Salt Lake City real estate scene in 2022. To Eskic, 2022 was the year of the Fed. In his mind, it was a federal miscalculation to raise borrowing rates so high and so fast after two runaway years. Use analytics to nd lucrative traditional or Airbnb properties in a matter of minutes. Therefore, although Utah home prices may decline in the coming months, the Utah housing market should remain relatively strong and correct itself for more sustainable growth. You can try RealAdvisor home value appraiser, to get the value of your home in Utah. So players should expect to see both challenges and opportunities in 2022. Renters have seen a steady, heady increase in rents over the past year, making their window for buying even more narrow. . At the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market as the available inventory is not keeping up with the demand despite an increase in the number of houses for sale and months of housing supply. The median days on the market was 70 days, up 47 year over year. Statewide, housing . Blame remote work, not speculative bubble, Fed study says, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. must have viewed at least 10 homes in a three month period. Theres going to be a terrible consolidation, he said, though he added he believes ultimately itll be good for the industry., In 2020 and 2021, when Congress was writing COVID-19 stimulus checks, Kelman said real estate diversified in an interesting way because those stimulus checks allowed people to experiment with real estate.. This is the MOST ACCURATE UTAH Housing Market Forecast for 2022. The researchers Jim Wood and Dejan Eskic, both from the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Institute had a friendly debate Friday during Ivory Homes annual private gathering of hundreds of homebuilders and other industry partners from across the state. Then the rates hit and they were left holding the bag, Eskic said. Salt Lake City Real Estate Market Forecast, Salt Lake (Utah state) home price prediction. Keep in mind, however, that during the pandemic housing frenzy from early 2020 to late 2022, the nations median home price ballooned by over 41%, so even if the most pessimistic predictions pan out, they arent slated to erase the historic price gains seen over the last two years. Even a two-year period will historically yield an increase in equity in the Utah housing market. Preston was born in Provo, Utah, and raised in Spanish Fork, Utah. West Valley City is assimilated to a suburb of Salt Lake City, but it is also the second most populous city in the state, with 140,230 residents. Its falling off faster than we thought it would.. The demand is causing local buyers to cut corners by foregoing home inspections and appraisal contingencies just to beat the competition. The cops came, quipped Dejan Eskic, senior research fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, one of Utahs leading housing experts. 2022. The flood of new residents that started in 2020 has not slowed due to low unemployment rates, low taxes, and affordable housing. Here are some of the Utah real estate market trends 2022 will bring our way: Over the past several years, Americans have been treated to near spoiled, actually by very low-interest rates. When they were 30 in 1994, they purchased their second home for around $120,000 on a combined income of around $85,000, Branca said. In his report for Utah, Wood wrote its very unlikely that the recent price run-up represents a housing bubble, though he added, We dont know if a bubble exists until after it bursts. He cited Alan Greenspan, an economist and past chairman of the Federal Reserve, who defined a housing bubble as a prolonged period of housing price declines. Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines., Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. The Utah housing market forecast for 2022 anticipates that more and more people will be on the lookout for property to purchase. With the rise of interest rates, a significant economic shift is occurring and we will likely see Utah home sales temper buyer demand. Starting in March 2022, the Federal Reserve Bank initiated an aggressive interest rate hike policy as a means to fight back against inflation. Right now, the continued rise in both mortgage rates and home price have kept many out of the housing market. Even as the cost of borrowing falls, home prices in expensive markets will probably fall a bit more to compensate for rates that will likely hold above 6% until early summer. TREC:Info About Brokerage Services,Consumer Protection Notice. Utah Home Sales In the final quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. Here are what other organizations and firms are predicting: Glenn Kelman, CEO of Redfin, predicted on a Jan. 4 episode of Barrons Live that the real estate market, particularly when it comes to real estate agents, will experience a painful constriction in 2023. Homes in Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022. Historically, Utah has weathered downturns and national economic disasters with less adverse effects than the other 49 States in the Union. What is the housing market like in Cache County today? 2.1 months of housing inventory. After seven years of Salt Lake County sales averaging 18,000 homes, the high prices of 2023 will mean sales will not top 13,000, he predicted, and likely range between 11,000 to 12,000. How can I get a free valuation of a home in Utah? Utah benefits from a strong economy, and, despite Utah housing prices being higher than the national average, there is still more demand for houses than available inventory. With the low amount of inventory, sellers will continue to enjoy multiple offers, with some buyers willing to fork over way above market price to beat out other potential buyers. How is the real estate market in Utah? The Utah housing market benefits from the states attractivity, which features a strong economy and job market. Peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. Nationwide, housing pandemic hot spots in the West have been among the first to see sale prices slashed. Historically low-interest rates, job growth, and pandemic conditions made Utah a highly attractive state for both homebuyers and investors. But Wood is more bullish than Eskic. It will test their mettle and resolve as it will be an exercise in decision-making and patience. Utahs housing experts disagree over how much home prices will decline, though they remain confident that 2023 will not bring a full blown, 2007-like crash, and that Utahs strong job economy will still largely insulate it from any negative impacts of a recession. South Jordan on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022 the loss you may believe you are if... 2023, 17.5 % of homes for sale rose 81.9 % price kept! 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